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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 14 – Arizona Cardinals 37

What Actually Happened

(3:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 10-A.Schwartz (23-R.Alford).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model