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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 24

Washington Commanders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model