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Kansas City Chiefs

3-3 HC Andy Reid
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Washington Commanders

2-4 HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 13:00 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

KC
68.1%
WAS
31.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.221 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.256 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.298 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 25 18–32
–
WAS 22 15–29
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

KC

Blake Bell TE Out Back
Chris Jones DE Out Wrist
Charvarius Ward CB Out Quadricep
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Knee
Joe Thuney G Questionable Hand
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Quadricep

WAS

Samuel Cosmi T Out Ankle
Jared Norris LB Out Shoulder
Curtis Samuel WR Out Groin
Brandon Scherff G Out Knee
Cam Sims WR Out Hamstring
Terry McLaurin WR Questionable Hamstring
Dyami Brown WR Questionable Knee
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Shin
Sammis Reyes TE Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
WAS 13

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD KC (9:13) (Shotgun) 31-Da.Williams left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 03:35 FG WAS (3:35) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. KC 7 – WAS 3
  • Q2 12:38 FG KC (12:38) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – WAS 3
  • Q2 08:12 FG WAS (8:12) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. KC 10 – WAS 6
  • Q2 01:27 TD WAS (1:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – WAS 12
  • Q3 04:12 TD KC (4:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – WAS 13
  • Q4 14:08 TD KC (14:08) 31-Da.Williams up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – WAS 13
  • Q4 03:19 TD KC (3:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-D.Robinson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-23-W.Jackson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. KC 30 – WAS 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:08) 5-T.Way punts 66 yards to KC 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75% p(FG) 18%

    (11:05) 31-Da.Williams right guard to WAS 48 for 5 yards (55-C.Holcomb, 20-B.McCain).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 WAS 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 70%

    (3:35) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (13:52) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to KC 28, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 17-M.Hardman to WAS 41 for 31 yards (5-T.Way).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 65%

    (12:38) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 85%

    (8:12) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 20%

    (5:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 34 yards to WAS 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:40) 5-T.Townsend punts 19 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (8:29) 3-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:52) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 40 for 25 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on WAS-5-T.Way, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:38) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to KC 4, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 90%

    (:33) 77-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 31-Da.Williams right end to WAS 21 for -1 yards (97-T.Settle).

    See the full breakdown →