Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Washington Commanders 13

(11:40) 5-T.Townsend punts 19 yards to WAS 44, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.98 EP
69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model