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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 53

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 31-Da.Williams right guard to WAS 48 for 5 yards (55-C.Holcomb, 20-B.McCain).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.41 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.22 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model