Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 70

Washington Commanders 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 40 for 25 yards (5-T.Way). PENALTY on WAS-5-T.Way, Low Block, 15 yards, enforced at KC 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model