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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 32

Washington Commanders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model