4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to BAL 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 28 for 13 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP