Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.123 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- BAL defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.283 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.241 EPA/dropback
- LAC defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
LAC
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:17 TD BAL (5:17) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 13:29 TD BAL (13:29) (Shotgun) 17-L.Bell right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – BAL 13
- Q2 07:08 FG BAL (7:08) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. LAC 0 – BAL 17
- Q2 04:08 TD LAC (4:08) 79-T.Pipkins reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – BAL 17
- Q3 07:43 TD BAL (7:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – BAL 23
- Q3 05:06 FG BAL (5:06) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. LAC 6 – BAL 27
- Q4 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Freeman left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – BAL 33
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 29%
(11:58) 1-T.Long punts 37 yards to BAL 10, Center-54-M.Overton, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(3:32) 1-T.Long punts 69 yards to BAL 12, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 26 for 14 yards (82-S.Anderson).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 59%
(12:22) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to BAL 15, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 28 for 13 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(10:51) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(9:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 81-M.Williams (44-M.Humphrey).
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Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 34Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 64%
(7:08) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 81Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 76%
(5:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 5-J.Palmer [49-C.Board].
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Q3 BAL 4th & 13 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%
(5:06) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(4:51) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 35 for 17 yards (31-N.Niemann).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72% p(FG) 56%
(5:28) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to BAL 35 for 2 yards (92-J.Madubuike).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 28 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.69 EPp(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%
(2:12) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Guyton.