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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model