Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 27

(4:51) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-54-M.Overton. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 35 for 17 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model