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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 42

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NYG 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model