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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

LA
66.0%
NYG
34.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Daniel Jones (NYG) +0.161 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.369 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: +0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • LA on 3 more days rest than NYG

Predicted Final Score

LA 26
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LA

No players on the report.

NYG

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Justin Hilliard LB Out Achilles
Ben Bredeson G Questionable Hand
Darius Slayton WR Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Foot
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 38
–
NYG 11

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 FG NYG (9:25) 5-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LA 0 – NYG 3
  • Q2 10:34 TD LA (10:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 2-R.Woods for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NYG 3
  • Q2 08:11 TD LA (8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 13 – NYG 3
  • Q2 03:40 TD LA (3:40) (Shotgun) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – NYG 3
  • Q2 00:43 TD LA (:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 27-D.Henderson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – NYG 3
  • Q3 05:49 FG LA (5:49) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 31 – NYG 3
  • Q4 12:02 TD LA (12:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – NYG 3
  • Q4 06:27 TD NYG (6:27) (No Huddle) 39-E.Penny up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 38 – NYG 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (9:25) 5-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (6:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to NYG 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:23) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 41 for no gain (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 43%

    (:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to NYG 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LA 26, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at LA 34 for 8 yards (39-E.Penny).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to LA 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-T.Atwell to LA 47 for 28 yards (9-R.Dixon). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 36. Officially, a return for 17 yards.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to LA 27, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.76 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 95%

    (5:49) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 13-D.Pettis to LA 39 for 15 yards (31-R.Rochell).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 49%

    (:16) 27-D.Henderson left guard to NYG 34 for 6 yards (48-T.Crowder).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LA 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-T.Atwell to LA 35 for 11 yards (36-C.Gillaspia; 52-C.Coughlin).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 18
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (6:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 3-S.Shepard to LA 4 for 14 yards (4-J.Fuller).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to NYG 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 3-S.Shepard to LA 21 for 1 yard (21-D.Deayon) [44-J.Jones].