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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-C.Board.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP