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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 28 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 8-M.Gay 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.76 EP