Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 54

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 31

(2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 13-D.Pettis to LA 39 for 15 yards (31-R.Rochell).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.07 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model