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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 18

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 3-S.Shepard to LA 4 for 14 yards (4-J.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP