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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 38 – New York Giants 11

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to NYG 18, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 21-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP