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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 22

New York Giants 11 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 3-S.Shepard to LA 21 for 1 yard (21-D.Deayon) [44-J.Jones].

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.26 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.38 EP