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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 59

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 41 for no gain (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.51 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model