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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 25

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 2-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model