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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 16:25 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LV
30.6%
DEN
69.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Teddy Bridgewater (DEN): +0.276 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
DEN 27
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LV

Johnathan Hankins DT Doubtful Hip
Quinton Jefferson DT Questionable Back

DEN

Mike Ford CB Out Knee
Aaron Patrick LB Questionable Ankle
Kareem Jackson S Questionable Back
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 34
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 TD LV (12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 11-H.Ruggs for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 06:57 TD DEN (6:57) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 81-T.Patrick for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-Y.Ngakoue]. LV 7 – DEN 6
  • Q1 02:45 FG LV (2:45) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – DEN 7
  • Q2 00:36 TD LV (:36) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 23-K.Drake for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – DEN 7
  • Q3 11:33 TD LV (11:33) 23-K.Drake right guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – DEN 7
  • Q3 06:42 FG DEN (6:42) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. LV 24 – DEN 10
  • Q3 00:10 TD LV (:10) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 30 – DEN 10
  • Q4 11:22 TD DEN (11:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 31 – DEN 16
  • Q4 08:01 FG LV (8:01) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 34 – DEN 17
  • Q4 01:17 TD DEN (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 34 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 73%

    (2:45) 2-D.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 82-E.Saubert INTERCEPTED by 35-B.Facyson at DEN 49. 35-B.Facyson to DEN 49 for no gain (87-N.Fant).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%

    (13:16) 2-D.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (11:46) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to LV 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:19) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 21%

    (4:40) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to LV 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 5 yards (16-T.Cleveland).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:44) 6-A.Cole punts 71 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:08) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to LV 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow. DEN-48-A.Mintze was injured during the play.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:27) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LV 44, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (6:42) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:14) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (11:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 9-K.Hinton INTERCEPTED by 39-N.Hobbs at LV 13. 39-N.Hobbs to LV 13 for no gain (9-K.Hinton). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 9-K.Hinton to LV 12 for 12 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (8:01) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 16 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (4:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for 81-T.Patrick INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram at LV 45. 24-J.Abram to DEN 49 for 6 yards (33-J.Williams).