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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 62

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to LV 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model