Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Denver Broncos 7

(10:19) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.04 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model