Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 82

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(13:27) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to LV 44, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.44 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model