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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 14

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 24

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model