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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP