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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 31 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.31 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP