4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 63

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle intended for 82-E.Saubert INTERCEPTED by 35-B.Facyson at DEN 49. 35-B.Facyson to DEN 49 for no gain (87-N.Fant).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.05 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model