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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to JAX 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP