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Miami Dolphins

1-5 HC Brian Flores
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Jacksonville Jaguars

1-5 HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 09:30 ET Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIA
50.9%
JAX
49.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • JAX defense: +0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22 15–29
–
JAX 21 14–28
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIA

Xavien Howard CB Out Shoulder
DeVante Parker WR Out Shoulder
Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable Hamstring
Byron Jones CB Questionable Achilles
Adam Shaheen TE Questionable Knee
Preston Williams WR Questionable Groin

JAX

Rashaad Coward T Out Ankle
Myles Jack LB Out Back
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Toe
Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20
–
JAX 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:48 TD MIA (7:48) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 03:54 FG JAX (3:54) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 7 – JAX 3
  • Q2 14:19 FG MIA (14:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 10 – JAX 3
  • Q2 05:42 FG MIA (5:42) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 13 – JAX 3
  • Q2 00:47 TD JAX (:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Baker]. MIA 13 – JAX 9
  • Q3 12:34 TD JAX (12:34) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 25-J.Robinson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – JAX 16
  • Q4 10:28 TD MIA (10:28) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – JAX 17
  • Q4 03:45 FG JAX (3:45) 15-M.Wright 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 20 – JAX 20
  • Q4 00:01 FG JAX (:01) 15-M.Wright 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 20 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

    (3:54) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (14:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

    (10:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to JAX 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 75%

    (7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins to JAX 10 for 20 yards (42-A.Wingard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:42) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 50%

    (2:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to MIA 49, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 28 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%

    (6:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to JAX 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (14:21) 25-J.Robinson left tackle to MIA 9 for no gain (55-J.Baker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Miami challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 06:39.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 61%

    (3:45) 15-M.Wright 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 35 for 9 yards (29-Br.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →