Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.42 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model