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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model