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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to MIA 49, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 88, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP