4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 9

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 25-J.Robinson left tackle to MIA 9 for no gain (55-J.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.45 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 9, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model