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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Miami challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 06:39.)

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP