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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 15-M.Wright 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model