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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -1.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model