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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 44

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 35 for 9 yards (29-Br.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.85 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP