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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.05 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 32, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model