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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model