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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-A.Ogundeji), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy, RECOVERED by ATL-92-A.Ogundeji at ATL 39.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP