Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- ATL on 7 more days rest than MIA
- ATL defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.135 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
ATL
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:58 TD MIA (7:58) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 87-I.Ford for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – MIA 6
- Q2 14:17 FG ATL (14:17) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 3 – MIA 7
- Q2 04:53 TD ATL (4:53) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – MIA 7
- Q2 00:07 FG ATL (:07) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 13 – MIA 7
- Q3 14:02 TD ATL (14:02) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 14-R.Gage for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Wilkins]. ATL 19 – MIA 7
- Q3 05:20 TD MIA (5:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – MIA 13
- Q4 12:55 TD ATL (12:55) 84-C.Patterson right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 26 – MIA 14
- Q4 08:35 TD MIA (8:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 37-M.Gaskin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 27 – MIA 20
- Q4 02:34 TD MIA (2:34) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 86-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 27 – MIA 27
- Q4 00:03 FG ATL (:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 30 – MIA 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(6:21) 12-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIA 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(4:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-O.Zaccheaus.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%
(14:17) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 31Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 74%
(10:03) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-A.Ogundeji), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy, RECOVERED by ATL-92-A.Ogundeji at ATL 39.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(10:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 17-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at ATL 30 for 17 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(9:17) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 8-J.Holland to MIA 42 for 16 yards (47-J.Harris).
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Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 27%
(2:36) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to MIA 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 8-J.Holland to MIA 12 for no gain (17-O.Zaccheaus, 39-T.Green).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 63%
(:02) 5-M.Palardy punts 58 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%
(:03) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.