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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 7 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 17-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at ATL 30 for 17 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model