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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 8-J.Holland to MIA 42 for 16 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model