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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to MIA 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 8-J.Holland to MIA 12 for no gain (17-O.Zaccheaus, 39-T.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.28 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model