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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ATL 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.22 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model