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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 7-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model