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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-J.Grant to CHI 29 for 13 yards (49-C.Gill).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.03 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model