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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 12.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CHI
18.1%
TB
81.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.266 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.243 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.107 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TB on 3 more days rest than CHI

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
TB 29
Projected margin: TB by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CHI

Tashaun Gipson S Out Hip
Bilal Nichols DE Questionable Knee
Duke Shelley CB Questionable Ankle
J.P. Holtz TE Questionable Quadricep
Caleb Johnson LB Questionable Knee
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Ankle
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Groin
Khalil Mack LB Questionable Foot
Allen Robinson WR Questionable Ankle

TB

Antonio Brown WR Out Ankle
Lavonte David LB Out Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Out Ribs
Richard Sherman CB Out Hamstring
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder
O.J. Howard TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 3
–
TB 38

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 TD TB (12:03) 7-L.Fournette up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 04:40 TD TB (4:40) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – TB 13
  • Q1 00:10 TD TB (:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – TB 20
  • Q2 06:13 FG CHI (6:13) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – TB 21
  • Q2 03:38 TD TB (3:38) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – TB 27
  • Q2 00:14 TD TB (:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – TB 34
  • Q4 12:55 FG TB (12:55) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. CHI 3 – TB 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to TB 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at CHI 32 for 43 yards (16-P.O'Donnell).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (9:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to TB 16, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:20) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-J.Grant to CHI 35 for no gain (28-R.Robinson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (14:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to TB 29, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:35) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-J.Grant to CHI 29 for 13 yards (49-C.Gill).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 85%

    (10:06) 3-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (6:13) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 26%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 48 for -1 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 96%

    (:40) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to CHI 8 for 3 yards (22-K.Vildor; 4-E.Jackson).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 38%

    (12:08) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 99%

    (:22) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones up the middle to CHI 1 for no gain (44-A.Ogletree). FUMBLES (44-A.Ogletree), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at CHI 2.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (12:55) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 16 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 43%

    (8:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 59%

    (2:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 24 yards to CHI 14, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-46-C.Tinker.